Study material for the Stage 1 Registered Report: Impulsivity and online sports betting behaviour: Untangling the causal relationship

The rapid expansion of online sports betting has raised concerns about its potential impact on individual health and public health. In order to further develop etiological models for gambling disorder (GD) in sports betting, it is essential to unravel the underlying causal processes. Recent studies have identified risky online gambling behavior as an early indicator of GD. The planned study focuses on impulsivity as a well-documented risk factor for GD and investigates whether increased impulsivity leads to risky online gambling behavior and subsequently contributes to GD. Impulsivity, risky gambling behavior, and GD symptoms will be assessed three times at three-month intervals using a longitudinal cross-lagged panel design. We aim to recruit a final sample of n=370 regular sports bettors from the online gambling provider Tipico. Impulsivity and GD are assessed using a combination of online experimental tasks and questionnaires. As a measure of risky gambling behavior, Tipico will provide player tracking data for the included participants. Random intercept cross‐lagged panel models will be used to test the evidence for our hypotheses. The results will improve our understanding of the causal pathways leading to risky gambling behavior and GD, and will inform the development of early prevention strategies.

Stage 1 Registered Report: http://dx.doi.org/10.23668/psycharchives.14372. The rapid expansion of online sports betting has raised concerns about its potential impact on individual health and public health. In order to further develop etiological models for gambling disorder (GD) in sports betting, it is essential to unravel the underlying causal processes. Recent studies have identified risky online gambling behavior as an early indicator of GD. This study focuses on impulsivity as a well-documented risk factor for GD and investigated whether increased impulsivity leads to risky online gambling behavior and subsequently contributes to GD. Impulsivity, risky gambling behavior, and GD symptoms were assessed three times at three-month intervals using a longitudinal cross-lagged panel design. We recruited a final sample of n = 427 regular sports bettors from the online gambling provider Tipico. Impulsivity and GD were assessed using a combination of online experimental tasks and questionnaires. As a measure of risky gambling behavior, Tipico provided player tracking data for all participants. Random intercept cross‐lagged panel models were used to test the evidence for our hypotheses. Results showed partial support for the role of impulsivity in the development of GD, particularly through facets such as impulsive choice and certain impulsive personality traits. However, the findings suggest that impulsivity does not directly predict risky betting behavior, nor does such behavior mediate the relationship between impulsivity and GD severity. These results emphasize the complexity of pathways to GD, highlighting the need to explore multifactorial models incorporating emotional, cognitive, and environmental mediators.

The rapid expansion of online sports betting has raised concerns about its potential impact on individual health and public health. In order to further develop etiological models for gambling disorder (GD) in sports betting, it is essential to unravel the underlying causal processes. Recent studies have identified risky online gambling behavior as an early indicator of GD. This study focuses on impulsivity as a well-documented risk factor for GD and investigated whether increased impulsivity leads to risky online gambling behavior and subsequently contributes to GD. Impulsivity, risky gambling behavior, and GD symptoms were assessed three times at three-month intervals using a longitudinal cross-lagged panel design. We recruited a final sample of n = 427 regular sports bettors from the online gambling provider Tipico. Impulsivity and GD were assessed using a combination of online experimental tasks and questionnaires. As a measure of risky gambling behavior, Tipico provided player tracking data for allparticipants. Random intercept cross‐lagged panel models were used to test the evidence for our hypotheses. Results showed partial support for the role of impulsivity in the development of GD, particularly through facets such as impulsive choice and certain impulsive personality traits. However, the findings suggest that impulsivity does not directly predict risky betting behavior, nor does such behavior mediate the relationship between impulsivity and GD severity. These results emphasize the complexity of pathways to GD, highlighting the need to explore multifactorial models incorporating emotional, cognitive, and environmental mediators.

Background: Online sports betting is growing in popularity worldwide and is increasingly being legalised. Researchers and policymakers are concerned about potential negative consequences for individuals and public health, as cross-sectional studies have linked online sports betting to significant rates of gambling problems. In order to develop evidence-based prevention and intervention strategies for GD, there is a strong need to understand its underlying processes. It is well researched that impulsivity is a risk factor for GD. At the same time, studies on player tracking data have shown that risky gambling behaviour is an early marker for GD. In the planned project, we will answer the research question of whether increased impulsivity leads to risky online gambling behaviour, which in turn leads to GD. Methods: In a longitudinal cross-lagged design, impulsivity, risky gambling behaviour and gambling disorder symptoms will be assessed three times at three-month intervals. A sample of n=370 regular sports bettors will be recruited from the online gambling provider Tipico. Impulsivity and gambling disorder symptoms will be assessed via online experimental tasks and questionnaires. As a measure of risky gambling behaviour, Tipico will provide the player tracking data of included participants. We will conduct random intercept cross‐lagged panel models (RI-CLPM) to test the evidence for our hypotheses. Expected results: The results will improve our causal understanding of problematic developments in gambling behavior and provide targets for early prevention measures, such as “applied games” to identify increased impulsivity early and potentially reduce it.

Supplementary Materials to the Stage 2 Registered Report: Impulsivity and online sports betting behavior: Untangling the causal relationship